Dubuque, located along the Mississippi River in eastern Iowa, is experiencing a transitional spring pattern. Cooler air has settled in after recent warmer days, with a gradual warmup expected mid-to-late week, followed by increased humidity and thunderstorm potential as a more active weather system approaches. 

Current Conditions (as of May 13)

Around 50°F with fair to partly cloudy skies, north-northwest winds around 10-15 mph (breezy at times), and moderate humidity. Conditions feel crisp and refreshing compared to prior days. 

Day-by-Day Outlook

•  Wednesday, May 13 (Today): Sunny to mostly sunny skies with a high near 67-70°F. Breezy north winds 10-15 mph, gusting higher at times. Clear and cool tonight with a low around 43-47°F. Precipitation chance near zero. Ideal for outdoor activities, though layers are recommended for the breeze. 

•  Thursday, May 14: Mostly sunny and pleasant, warming to a high in the low-to-mid 70s (around 73-75°F). Light winds shifting southerly. Low tonight near 54-58°F, with a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing late, especially toward evening or overnight (around 20-40% in some outlooks). 

•  Friday, May 15: Very warm with a high reaching the low-to-mid 80s (around 81-85°F). Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Increasing humidity. Low around 56-60°F. Isolated showers possible, particularly in the afternoon or evening (30-50% chance). 

•  Saturday, May 16: Warm and humid with highs in the mid-80s (potentially up to 84-88°F). Partly to mostly sunny early, becoming cloudier. Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon and evening (40-60% chance). Low near 58-62°F. 

•  Sunday, May 17: Unsettled with a high in the upper 70s to low 80s (around 75-83°F). Showers and thunderstorms probable, some possibly strong (50-70%+ chance of precipitation). Low in the upper 50s to mid-60s. Highest rain chances of the period. 

•  Monday, May 18: Continued cloudy and humid conditions with a high near 80-85°F. Likely showers and thunderstorms (60%+ chance). Low around 55-64°F. Potential for repeated rounds of rain. 

•  Tuesday, May 19: Partial clearing with cooler highs in the low-to-mid 70s. Lingering chance of showers (20-40%). Low near 50°F. A drying trend may begin. 

Temperature and Pattern Summary: Expect a notable warmup from today’s cooler readings into the mid-80s by Friday-Saturday, accompanied by rising humidity. A shift to wetter conditions arrives late in the weekend into early next week, with temperatures moderating slightly afterward. Overnight lows generally stay above freezing, but early-week cool air brought frost potential in some spots. River proximity may add localized fog or slight temperature moderation at times. 

Storm Prediction and Severe Weather Outlook

The immediate short term (Wednesday-Thursday) carries low severe weather risk overall. Any isolated thunderstorms late Thursday would likely remain sub-severe. 

The more active period arrives Saturday through Monday, particularly Sunday. Broader central U.S. patterns, including a trough and sufficient instability/shear, support elevated thunderstorm chances across parts of the Midwest, including Iowa. The Storm Prediction Center has indicated potential Slight Risk areas (Level 2/5) in relevant outlooks for portions of the region, with hazards including damaging winds, hail, and possibly isolated tornadoes in stronger cells. 

Key Storm Details:

•  Timing: Primarily afternoon and evening hours when heating maximizes instability.

•  Hazards: Heavy rainfall (localized flooding risk, especially with training storms), gusty winds, small to moderate hail. Stronger storms could produce more significant impacts.