Issued Saturday, August 15, 2026

Dubuque residents can expect a temporary break from active weather this weekend before the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms returns midweek, according to the National Weather Service Quad Cities office and Storm Prediction Center.

Current Conditions and Short-Term Forecast (Through Monday)

As of late Saturday evening, temperatures around Dubuque were in the low-to-mid 70s under cloudy skies with fog or mist in places. A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms remains overnight into early Sunday, mainly before 5 a.m., with a low near 72°F. Any storms are expected to be progressive, limiting the flash-flood threat compared to recent days, though heavy rain remains possible in stronger cells. 

Sunday brings gradual clearing with highs near 83°F under northwest winds of 5–10 mph. Mostly clear skies and a low around 63°F are expected Sunday night. Monday looks pleasant and dry with sunny skies, a high near 81°F, and a low around 64°F Monday night. High pressure will keep conditions quiet and near seasonal temperatures through the day Monday. 

Midweek Threat: Tuesday Focus

The pattern turns more active beginning late Monday into Tuesday as a cold front approaches. Tuesday features partly sunny skies and a high near 82°F, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms developing after 1 p.m. Storms are likely to continue into Tuesday night, when an 80% chance of showers (and possibly a thunderstorm) is forecast and the low dips to around 64°F. 

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of Iowa, including areas near Dubuque, in a Day 4 (Tuesday) outlook with a 15% probability of severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point. Strong instability and favorable wind profiles could support organized storms capable of large hail and damaging winds, with the main activity expected during the afternoon and evening as the front progresses. Heavy rainfall is also a concern given elevated precipitable water values. 

Local forecasts note that while an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out, damaging winds and hail appear to be the primary severe threats at this time.

Remainder of the Week (Wednesday–Saturday)

Wednesday brings partly sunny skies and a cooler high near 77°F as the front moves through. Partly cloudy conditions and a low around 59°F are expected Wednesday night. Thursday through Saturday look mostly dry and pleasant under high pressure influence, with highs generally in the mid-to-upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Low-end shower chances cannot be entirely ruled out later in the period, but confidence is higher in quieter weather. 

What Residents Should Know

•  Stay weather-aware Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and evening when the strongest storms are most likely.

•  Monitor official sources for watches and warnings, as details on timing and intensity can shift.

•  Recent heavy rains across parts of the region mean soils remain saturated in some areas, increasing the potential for localized flooding with any additional heavy downpours.

The National Weather Service Quad Cities continues to emphasize that the Sunday–Monday dry stretch offers a welcome break after a stretch of active weather. Residents are encouraged to check updated forecasts regularly, as medium-range guidance can evolve.

Sources: National Weather Service Quad Cities forecast (updated Saturday evening), Storm Prediction Center Day 4–8 outlook, and local area forecast discussions.

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