DUBUQUE, Iowa — October 20, 2026

If you are hoping for a gentler winter in the tri-state area, the official outlook offers some encouragement. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its U.S. Winter Outlook on Thursday, October 15, 2026, and it favors warmer-than-normal temperatures across the Upper Mississippi River Valley — including Dubuque and northeast Iowa — for December 2026 through February 2027.

The driver is a powerful El Niño in the Pacific Ocean that is still strengthening. Sea surface temperatures in the key Niño-3.4 region are running about 2.1 degrees Celsius above average, and forecasters say there is a greater than 83 percent chance the event remains strong to very strong through January–March 2027. There is even a chance — put at 70 percent for November through January — that this becomes a historic El Niño, stronger than any since 1950. The last very strong El Niño was in 2015-16.

What it means for Dubuque

The National Weather Service office in La Crosse, which covers northeast Iowa, puts the odds of a warmer-than-normal winter locally at 40 to 60 percent — meaning a good chance this winter lands among the warmest third of winters in the 1991–2020 record. History backs that up: in strong and very strong El Niño winters since 1949-50, a majority of winter months in the region finished among the warmest third. The two warmest winters on record at La Crosse were both El Niño winters.

Fewer brutal cold snaps are also part of the picture. A pattern in the stratosphere known as the Quasi-biennial Oscillation is expected to keep polar winds stronger than average this winter, making the kind of sudden stratospheric warming events that unleash prolonged Arctic outbreaks less likely.

Precipitation is the murkier part of the forecast. Locally, NOAA gives equal chances of a wetter-, near-normal, or drier-than-normal winter, though the historical record leans wet: most strong El Niño winters in the region were also among the wettest third. No drought concerns are forecast anywhere in Iowa this winter.

Snow: probably less, but not none

Seasonal snow has generally run near to below normal in strong El Niño winters. At La Crosse, seven of the nine strong or very strong El Niño winters since 1949-50 finished below the normal seasonal snowfall of 46.3 inches. Forecasters are quick to add that snowstorms will still happen — a mild seasonal average can still hide a few memorable storms and short, sharp cold snaps.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which released its 2027 edition in September, lands in roughly the same place for Iowa, calling for a mild and wet winter in its Heartland region, with snow possible into March and an early spring to follow.

NOAA will update its seasonal outlook on November 19, 2026. Until then, the message for the Dubuque area is simple: keep the snow blower ready, but expect to reach for it a little less often — and expect more mild days in between.

Sources: NWS La Crosse Winter 2026-27 Outlook (Oct. 15, 2026); Northwest Iowa Now (Oct. 16, 2026); KJAN / Old Farmer’s Almanac (Sept. 2026); KRNA.